Russia has invaded Ukraine, illegally annexed Crimea and currently prosecute a non-declared quasi-proxy war in eastern Ukraine.
The opposing camps fight over interpretation and right of way, well dug in along a clearly defined semantic frontline. We need not tarry here, other than to determine that the divide exists and that nations, people and media "Full satsning ar enda alternativet" remain noncommittal but must perforce elect to dodge the factual bayonet to either side of the blade lest they be speared by it.
Russia has invaded and is invading Ukraine. Russia is bent on a systematic strategy of destabilization, supposedly aimed at rupturing the European Union and the Transatlantic bond, Full satsning ar enda alternativet Ukraine is but one of many subsequent battlefields.
Others point to a wider strategy that challenges the established world order. It patently does not. This is where it gets interesting. Russia has employed the entire Full satsning ar enda alternativet in its bid to destabilize and disrupt Ukraine and the West.
Ukraine is more united than ever before in its history and is gradually, through combat experience and international aid, becoming more resilient to overt pressure. The formerly soft neighbours are growing a hard shell. Concurrently, Russia is haemorrhaging and losing precious time in and over Ukraine. Russian economic pressure — its use of the gas weapon and denial of Russia as a Western marketplace — is being offset by alternate vendors and alternate sources: Europe is working hard to wean itself from Russian gas.
In trade terms Russia never was much of a marketplace for anything but European luxury goods and limited staple products: Africa is but one continent that may pick up the slack left by the Russian embargo.
Russian propaganda is crude and ineffective: The Western population is more interested in the latest Euroschlager or soccer game than strange noise about Jewish neonazi conspiration and the Bilderberg group. However overtly impotent, Russian propaganda is more in the low frequency band: This long-term propaganda effort is very much harder to spot and combat, as any revelation of it is actively countered by appeasers, pro-Russian representatives and infiltrators of the Western media collective.
Nuclear threats, subtle and direct, is the last resort. Whenever Russia starts jangling its nuclear pocket you can be certain of one thing: Russia is at the end of its tether. It has come to a natural end point where its traditional means of power and destabilization is without immediate effect.
More damningly, its ambassadors and representatives are being publicly ridiculed and laughed out of court in contexts where previously the world might listen and cringe. This is disturbing, because it is witness to how few options Russia has left.
In my view there is but one item left in the armory, and that is actual use of nuclear arms. I my two previous posts I opine that Russia is hard pressed to conclude its Ukrainian venture and wholly incapable of prosecuting war in more than one direction other than Ukraine.
To go further Russia must drop the pretense of deniability and non-involvement and become fully committed to war, at an accompanying risk of being shut out from SWIFT as well as directly opposed by NATO.
The alternative is to remain mired in the murky deniability zone and accept a slow, wasteful and largely unproductive process wherein Ukraine grows stronger and Russia weaker.
Thus, to escape the time-wasting swamp and hasten toward its strategic objective, Russia must employ yet more powerful means. It may well attempt extreme frightfulness — though this has proven counterproductive already, such as seen by the MH17 disaster — and yet more intimidation, though this too has proven largely unproductive: These measures are brushed aside or, by the great majority, ignored.
Does this imply that Russia is likely to unleash nuclear war? This would stun and cow as nothing else, and ratchet up the game to a very, very frightening level.
Let us hope that Russia is not quite that crazy. As discussed in the previous postI opine that Russia — however menacing it may appear — is currently unable to prosecute considerable military might in more than one direction Full satsning ar enda alternativet a time. The report suggests that Russia might have some manoeuvre brigades available for deployment outside their current assignments to Military Districts, equivalent to approximatelytroops — representing roughly one third of the grand total available.
The troops mentioned in the FOI Full satsning ar enda alternativet, initially concentrated in the Rostov area as witnessed by numerous first-hand accounts, have since appeared in Ukraine, taking part in the September onslaught and Ilovaisk battle, in the Donetsk airport struggle and in the encirclement battle of Debaltseve.
They have not appeared as one formidable
Full satsning ar enda alternativet but have rather rotated in and out, in mixed battalion tactical groups BTGs. Each such BTG number approximately 1, people, depending on its composition. This however is, of course, altogether denied by Russia in various statements ranging from Vladimir PutinKremlin spokesman Valery Peskov and Konstantin Kosachevhead of the Russian Cooperation Agency, in the recent Brussels Forum.
You should know whom to believe. All of this leads up to one conclusion: Russia cannot provide very much more troops to Ukraine unless they are to be second-rate or conscript quality troops. The best cadre has been used up already and some of them are dead. With some 25, troops in Crimea, another 30, troops deployed to or near eastern Ukraine in three different staging areas, it seems virtually impossible for Russia
Full satsning ar enda alternativet muster a qualified invasion force of yet another 80, troops from the bulk of its remaining manpower.
It seems fair to say that these garrison troops are not ready for battle; they are not concentrated in space or time nor are they under unified command. Suddenly everyone is running scared: This is what the Kremlin wants you to believe. This is how Kremlin works to cow the ill-informed and to give populist politicians ammunition for appeasement and continued disarmament. While Russia IS undeniably a crazy scary rogue that has the oomph and inclination to project itself at will in virtually any direction, at least theoretically, all of this IS bluster, bluff and intimidation.
Russia has been playing us for fools for way too long already. Russian demonstrations — that is, its campaign of smoke and mirrors — against the Baltic States, Finland, Sweden and the Arctic, in addition to Bear flights over Scotland, Ireland and elsewhere, serve to foster a belief that these countries are at risk, imminently or eventually, of Russian invasion and overt force projection.
One picture stands out as stark revelation of the Russian commitment to Ukraine: This is unsurprising yet often overlooked: Russia turns its best units against the West while only barely keeping up appearances everywhere else. Militarily, Russia is in a holding pattern in the East. It would be foolish indeed to provoke Full satsning ar enda alternativet action against Iran in a bid to gain access to the Gulf and Arabian Sea, as it would range the entire Muslim world against Russia — apart from the very real islamist threat already present and active in the Russian hinterlands.
Thus I submit that Russia is content to keep this area boiling in its own sauce and occupied with hatred against USA and the West in general rather than against Russia. In the Caucasus, Russia has similar strategic interests as in Ukraine: Kremlin wants a buffer zone against external threats and will continue to hold the area in suspended animation through proxy and allied regimes, such as in South Ossetia and Azerbaijan.
This is wholly contrary to Russian strategy and would make its military and geopolitical sacrifice null and void. Therefore it is safe to say that Russia will continue its path of war and destabilization to produce a collapsed or fragmented state Ukraine as preliminary to consolidation and further reconstruction of the bygone Soviet empire.
Is it mere bluster and bluff, or is it real? Do we have reason to fear Russia and must we ramp up our defence budgets to create a credible bulwark against a rejuvenated Russian imperialism? I submit that threats thereof and aggressive posturing is a bluff to divert attention from the Ukrainian vector, as Russia needs a direct military confrontation with NATO as much as it needs a hole the head.
Russia is crazy but not stupid. It makes no sense whatsoever for a relatively weak Russia to engage in conflict with a strong adversary — and NATO is strong despite its advertised weakness, far stronger than Russia who wants to make believe that it is strong enough to project itself in any direction.
It goes entirely against the grain of military and political thinking to engage where the enemy is strongest: Ukraine has largely disappeared from the media radar save for very brief summaries in newscasts and assorted op-eds.
Eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
Russia will most likely need ALL of its available manpower to continue its offensive in Full satsning ar enda alternativet and can not spend its ready reserves in a simultaneous two-front or even three-front war with NATO as one opponent. Further north still, there have been reports of Russian troop Full satsning ar enda alternativet and preparation in the Belgorod area aimed at Kharkiv, heralded by numerous reports of sabotage, weapons caches, bombings and paid protestors in and around Kharkiv proper.
Likewise, there are recurring reports of sabotage against railroad targets and bridges in the near and deep rear of the Ukrainian positions. The Storm All of this adds up to one thing: Phillip Karber mentions a few unsettling facts: The Ukrainian army is fully committed to holding the established front line and is being steadily whittled down — batallions are reduced to companies, companies are reduced to platoon strength.
There is virtually nothing left in the cupboard behind the front: Timing When will Russia attack? Full satsning ar enda alternativet the steppes are sufficiently dry, sometime around mid-April or early May — maybe sooner — and after a minimum of weeks of unremitting artillery preparation that will grind down the Ukrainians to the point of surrender.
ATO HQ typically report attacks per day of which a handful are made with artillery and mortars. Expect this number to increase to attacks per day, with the majority being tube and MLRS fire rather than from small arms and RPGs.
Once through the Full satsning ar enda alternativet Ukrainian crust on two or three easterly and northeasterly vectors, there is nothing but rolling steppes until you hit the Dniepr. Standard procedure would be to bypass large obstacles such as Mariupol and Izyum in order to envelop and defeat surrounded forces piecemeal. All of this, and more antics in UN and media by Lavrov, Churkin and assorted characters, will serve to dissuade the West from reinforcing Ukraine at the critical juncture — although this juncture is already well passed.
Sophisticated EW gear, counter-artillery equipment, laser designators, night vision devices and personal protection gear is also of the essence. The mere promise and preparation to convey said goods to Ukraine will act as a powerful signal to Russia that may yet convice it to back down, or at the least delay its offensive — although this action may well also act as a trigger, forcing Russia Full satsning ar enda alternativet attack prematurely before the goods arrive.
The Western world must stand up to its values and show that it is committed to backing Ukraine to the hilt, through continued and yet harsher sanctions, and through all kinds of pressure on Russia to cease and desist.
Wrapping up Sadly, critical time has been lost by painfully interminable negotiations with a Russia that has no intent whatsoever to fulfil any agreement or promise.
The long slog through various political offices and abdication of responsibility from prominent world leaders has done nothing for Ukraine and all for Russia.
Even if Ukraine were to receive lethal military help right this very instant, it may well be too late, by a few measly months worth of instruction, training and forward deployment. That however is no justification for holding off yet longer — the West must arm Ukraine, now, or pay the ultimate and historical cost for its failure. Vilka akademiska meriter har han? Vad har han publicerat? Det handlar ju bara om SVT: Jag ringer lite senare. Jo, jag tackar ja. Utan den har vi ingenting. När det kommer till öl är okunskapen dock stor, bara fyra procent anger att de av alla svenskar att de väljer ekologiska produkter när alternativet finns.
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