I en debattartikel i senaste numret av SULF: A theory of evidence for use Wednesday 30 May. Of what use are randomized controlled trials RCTs? The power of causal powers Friday Regeringen blundar for miljoproblemen June.
Putting causal powers to use. Paul Krugman is widely appreciated for his New York Times columns criticizing Republican demands for fiscal austerity. He rightly argues that cutting back public spending will worsen the economic depression into which we are sinking. In old-fashioned Keynesian style he believes that the solution to insufficient market demand is for the government to run larger budget deficits.
All this is a good idea as far as it goes. Krugman stops there — as if that is all that is needed today. So what he has done is basically get into a fight with intellectual pygmies. Thus dumbs down his argument, and actually distracts attention from what is needed to avoid the financial and fiscal depression he is warning about.
Krugman hopes that economists will stop distracting attention by talking about what he deems not necessary. It seems not necessary to write down debts, for example. All that is needed is to reduce interest rates on existing debts, enabling them to be carried.
Krugman also does not advocate shifting taxes off labor onto property. The implication is that California can afford its Proposition 13 — the tax freeze on commercial property and homes at long-ago levels, which has fiscally strangled the state and led to an explosion of debt-leveraged housing prices by leaving the site value untaxed and hence free to be pledged to banks for larger and larger mortgage loans instead of being paid to the public authorities.
There is no hint in Mr. The effect of Mr. The wealthy benefit from the windfall gains delivered by the public infrastructure investment advocated by Mr. Krugman, but there is not a word about Regeringen blundar for miljoproblemen public recouping this investment. Governments are indeed able to create their own money as an alternative to taxing, but some taxes — above all, on windfall gains, like "Regeringen blundar for miljoproblemen" value resulting from public investment in roads or other public transportation — are justified simply on grounds of economic fairness.
So it is important to note what Regeringen blundar for miljoproblemen. Krugman does not address these issues that once played so important a role in Democratic Party politics, before the Wall Street faction gained control via the campaign financing process — even before the Citizens United case.
For over a century, economists have recognized the need for financial and fiscal reform to go together. The effect is to load the economy at large down with private and public Regeringen blundar for miljoproblemen. It is to be better subsidized — with easier bank credit and more government spending.
In Europe, which has no central bank permitted to monetize the deficit spending, this pays interest to transfers to the bondholders and their descendants. In the United States, the Federal Reserve can monetize this indebtedness — but the effect is to subsidize domestic debt service. Krugman has become censorial regarding the debt issue over the last month or so.
The effect of his narrow set of recommendations is to defend the status quo — and for my money, despite his reputation as a liberal, that makes Mr.
Perhaps I can prod Mr. Krugman into taking a stronger position on this issue. Bank fraud, junk mortgages and casino capitalism are not the problem, or at least not so serious that more deficit spending cannot cure it.
The usual version involves the claim that American workers are stuck in the wrong industries or with the wrong skills. Almost years ago, a young official in the UK Treasury sought to advise European policy makers on how daunting external Regeringen blundar for miljoproblemen might best be managed. There was, he argued, a limit to the national capacity to service debts.
Those expecting further payments were bound to be disappointed. More than that, efforts by creditors to insist on further debt payments would be politically dangerous. When he was ignored by creditor governments, John Maynard Keynes quit his post to write the Economic Consequences of the Peace.
Underpinning the German position is the belief that resolving debt problems is the sole responsibility of the debtor. Keynes, by contrast, that both creditors and debtors should share the task of getting economies out of holes they had jointly dug ….
The economic effects of this policy are becoming clearer by the day: Europe has essentially stopped growing — and there is little hope of growth resuming in the near term. Nor, evidently, have the debt problems been solved. The political consequences are, if anything, worse.
Talks to form a Greek government have collapsed. "Regeringen blundar for miljoproblemen" Greece is only an extreme example. Centrist governments across the Mediterranean are increasingly seen by their citizens as powerless. They have no independent monetary policy; no capacity to devalue; no right to impose capital controls; limited ability to support failing national enterprises; and now they are mandated to tighten fiscal policy ….
It is a historical irony that European countries that avoided a repeat of the Great Depression after the banking crisis are now driving into the blind cul-de-sac that led to extremism in that earlier disaster.
German historical memory has vivid recall of the hyperinflation of But it is possible to forget it was deflation and the Great Depression that brought Hitler to power in One of the lessons of history is that sovereign debts must be managed in ways that do not destroy either the economy or the political centre ground ….
If this means project spending — financed off-balance sheet by jointly guaranteed liabilities or by higher taxes, so be it. If it means substantial restructuring of sovereign debts swapped into indexed debt or growth bonds, or with grace periods until countries resume growth, so be it.
If it requires shifting some of the burden of debt finance on to older generations who own
Regeringen blundar for miljoproblemen debt, that political issue must also be faced. Eurozone countries must be allowed to grow again.
For a country in such desperate straits as Greece, however, orderly exit from the euro to regain competitiveness looks to be the best option. But it is in the interest of both Greece and its Regeringen blundar for miljoproblemen that the resulting devaluation be controlled. We must not add currency wars to our present pile of problems. John Geanakoplos has a great lecture at Yale University on why central banks should pay much more attention on leverage cycles.
He is forcefully arguing that one of the missing ingredients in the macro models used by central banks today are endogenous default and endogenous lending terms distinct from the interest rate. Focussing to much on interest rates have made them unable to recognise that changes the perception of potential defaults can have serious repercussions on economic activities.
It has also made central banks unable to detect the financial bubbles and to a faulty understanding of the nature debt and leverage.
In short — central banks have to a large degree based their policies on the wrong models.
Paul Krugman has a post on Sweden today on his blog. This is what he writes:. But anyway, the story now is that Sweden has slashed spending and cut taxes, and is doing great; supply-side economics vindicated! Ezra points out, rightly, that Sweden has actually benefited a lot from very aggressive monetary policy — Regeringen blundar for miljoproblemen of the original Princeton zero-lower-bound Group of Four, Lars Svensson, is now deputy governor of the Riksbank.
The others were Mike Woodford, yours truly, and a fellow by the name of Ben Bernanke. Look, in particular, at actual government consumption — purchases of stuff. The namned Group of Four member, Lars E. What Svensson is saying, without so words, is that the Swedish Fed for no reason at all has made people unemployed.
As a consequence of a faulty monetary policy the unemployment is considerably higher than it would have been if the Swedish Fed had done its job adequately. Just as in your own country, neoliberal ideologies, economists and politicians have crushed the Swedish dream that once was. And facts — as Gunnar Myrdal used to say — kick! Den kallas oftast numera interndevalvering. In the postwar period, it has become increasingly clear that economic growth has not only brought greater prosperity.
The other side of growth in the form of pollution, contamination and wastage of resources has increasingly emerged as perhaps the greatest challenge of our time. Biotechnology and other technical advances make it possible to minimize resource and energy use and reuse waste products. Nature Regeringen blundar for miljoproblemen fundamentally robust and resilient.
Many so-called neoclassical environmental and resource economists have used cost-benefit analysis, welfare and price theory to extend the traditional economic theory to include also applications to environmental issues. However, this has not resulted in any paradigm shift in the perception of growth and the environment.
It has mostly confined itself to quantify the societal costs associated with negative externalities on the environment.
Against this view of the link between economic growth and the environment, ecologists have argued that environmental problems can lead to irreparable damages to nature. The Romanian-American economist Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen argued in his epochal The Entropy Law and the Economic Process that the economy was actually a thermodynamic system in which entropy increases inexorably and our material basis disappears.
The monetary reductionism can easily lead to that one ignores the other factors Regeringen blundar for miljoproblemen a bearing on human interaction with the environment. Ett program som ingjuter sina lyssnare med gott mod och vingar! Getting the expected value in Regeringen blundar for miljoproblemen betting is irrelevant for decisions on single bets.
Unfortunately — at least if you want to adhere to the standard neoclassical expected utility maximization theory — you are then considered irrational! A neoclassical utility maximizer that rejects the single gamble should also reject the aggregate offer. Although the expected utility theory is obviously descriptively inadequate, colleagues and microeconomics textbook writers all over the world gladly continue to use it, as though its deficiencies were unknown or unheard of.
That cannot be the right attitude when facing scientific anomalies. It is time for economists to recognize that expected utility is an ex-hypothesis, so that we can concentrate our energies on the important task of developing better descriptive models of choice under uncertainty. Nedbyggingen av gjeldsgraden innenfor OECD har knapt startet. Inte minst mot bakgrund av den enorma norska bostadsbubblan. Eller som en kommentator skriver:. Entries and comments feeds.
allvarliga miljö-problemen präglar också vår politik. Ung Vänster . regering. Samarbetet med arbetarrörelsens partier är viktigt, men facket ska inte underordna sig medvetenhet som inte blundar för kön är därför en central politisk uppgift.
tillväxt och miljö har främst ekologer hävdat att miljöproblemen kan leda till Den monetära reduktionismen leder lätt till att man blundar för andra.